Bursting the Bubble

With concerns over a bubble being formed in the NSW and Vic markets AAPRA and the RBA have made every effort to take the steam out of rising prices. Some of the initiatives they have taken are

Media releases

There has been a spate of media releases indicating the market is “over heated” .There have been nuances with  a  broad hint with releases like” prices do not keep going up”, “interest rates would rise someday” , “ this is probably last interest rate cut”. The media have added to the woes by stating that real estate in Sydney and Victoria has become unaffordable.

Interest rates and investors

The new initiative to wean out the investor is have a dual interest rate regime. Investors have to pay a larger rate of interest than home occupiers. They also indicated that “negative gearing” may have to be reexamined. Capital gains tax would have to be reexamined. This has caused shivers down investor spines and finally they have even threatened to change laws around super.  

The effect it has had so far have been minimal as prices in both Sydney and Melbourne seem to be holding on to their prices but one needs to know for how long. Prices do not seem to be going up at the same pace. Stock levels have come on as it most people that there are more chances for a move on the down side as compared to the upside. Buyers have become more cautious .Volumes of people through open homes seems to have dropped in numbers and so have offers on the table though the underlying move is still upwards. So all the efforts described above has managed to take out some steam from the market though the trend is still upwards. This becomes evident when one examines Real estate price indicators.

Auction Clearance rates

Sydney:  from 81% it has turned to 77-79% in the last two months

Melbourne: 79% to 74 % in the same period of time

Adelaide: 47-79%

Time on market

Average time in NSW is 49 days

Average time on market in Victoria 52 days

So while sentiment has taken a hit house valuations are not threatened at the moment. The lowest mortgage rates do not seem to be moving in the near future making this a good time to buy rather than rent. While some banks have gone conservative with their valuations, they are still not an issue. I have seen a surge in requests for market appraisals which could be seasonal (spring round the corner or home owners are looking to upgrade their existing homes.

Statistical facts have been taken from Home Price Guide though in this ever changing environment one would have to rely on professional assistance and none of the above should be considered as advice.